The Race For Pa-6 Is Just Beginning

The race for PA-6 is just beginning

MALVERN, PA ñ Bob Roggio (D) today released the results of a poll conducted by Pete Brodnitz of Benenson Strategy group.  The results are clear.  Despite the misleading press release and poll results issued by the Gerlach team last week, Gerlachís seat is far from safe.

Here are the facts.  Jim Gerlachís job approval is at just 39% (a detail he neglected to report when releasing his poll last week).  But the biggest piece of news is this: while Gerlach leads unknown Roggio in an intial, uniformed ballot, as soon as voters are introduced to Bob Roggio through a biographical paragraph, Gerlachís lead vanishes and Bob Roggio assumes a 7% lead. 

ìThis poll emphatically shows that contrary to what Jim Gerlachís team wants you to believe, the race for Pennsylvaniaís 6th district is just beginning,î said Liz Conroy, Roggioís Campaign Manager.  ìAt a time when people are ready for new solutions and new ideas, Jim Gerlach epitomizes politics as usual in the eyes of voters.  The 6th district is clearly excited about Bob Roggioís story and his new priorities for the region, the state and the nation.î

Additionally, Roggio recently made the Democratic National Campaign Committee (DCCC) targeted  ìEmerging Candidatesî list, a list of strong challengers who are one step away from qualifying for the DCCCís Red to Blue program.  In evidence of their investment in this race, the DCCC has begun running radio ads in the district this week. (http://dccc.bluestatedigital.com/pages/dccc_launches_independence_day_radio_ad_campaign)

The Benenson Strategy Group memo on the poll results appears below.

To:       Bob Roggio Campaign Team

From:   Pete Brodnitz

Date:    Thursday, June 26, 2008

Re:       New poll of PA6 General Election Voters

Overview

Despite the fact that Bob Roggio is a virtual unknown, Gerlach is unable to get over 50% on the initial ballot against Roggio, leading 49% to 32%.  Gerlachís net-negative job approval rating, and voter strong desire for change in Washington forecast change in the Sixth District.  Sure enough, after voters are introduced to Bob Roggio through a simple biographical paragraph, Gerlachís lead vanishes and Bob Roggio assumes a 7% lead over Gerlach ñ a 24% ballot swing just from voters learning who Roggio is.

PA6 Voters Dissatisfied With Direction of Country, Leadership in Washington

Voters in Pennsylvaniaís Sixth Congressional District are very unhappy with the direction of the country: 79% said the country is on the wrong track, compared to just 12% who said it is on the right track. 

In addition, Bushís job approval is remarkably low ñ 84% said Bush was doing a just fair or poor job.  And not only are these voters unhappy with the leadership at the top in Washington, they are also unhappy with their Representative in Washington, Jim Gerlach ñ just 39% approve of the job he is doing as Congressman - ominous in a highly-charged, change-oriented environment such as the Sixth District:

Gerlach Leads Against Unknown Roggio, But After Voters Learn About Roggio, He Leads Gerlach By 7%

While 82% of voters know who Gerlach is, Roggio is almost unknown to voters ñ his name ID is 10%. Yet despite Roggioís status as a virtually unknown candidate, Gerlach is unable to get over 50% on the initial ballot against him ñ he leads Roggio 49% to 32%:

However, once Sixth District voters hear a simple biography of Roggio, Gerlachís lead is erased and Roggio takes a 7% lead over the incumbent Gerlach:

Bob Roggio and his wife Jeannie have lived in Chester County for almost 40 years, where they raised three children, all of whom attended public schools.  Roggio is not a typical politician. He's a local businessman who quit college after his father died to take care of his mother and work in the family business. He rose through the company's ranks to run it, creating 400 new jobs and tripling the company's income during the 10 years he was in charge.  After working almost his entire adult life, at age 56, Roggio retired and then went back to college to earn his degree from Penn State in just two years. Roggio has done volunteer work around Charlestown for Little League and the Red Cross, as well as hurricane relief work in Florida. 

The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 500 interviews District-wide with likely 2008 general election voters June 21 ñ24, 2008. The margin of error for overall results is ±4.37%.

The Benenson Strategy Groupís clients include Governor Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Jim Webb (VA), and Senator Robert Menendez (NJ). Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named ìPollster of the Yearî by the American Association of Political Consultants in 2007 for his work for Kaine, Webb and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.  It is a bi-partisan award given to one pollster every two years.